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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.